Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
44 Virginia Commonwealth 72.8%   10   25 - 7 16 - 2 25 - 7 16 - 2 +10.6      +0.5 164 +10.2 7 70.0 142 +10.0 50 +13.3 1
63 Dayton 1.0%   21 - 11 13 - 5 21 - 11 13 - 5 +7.8      +5.2 47 +2.6 104 63.4 317 +6.3 84 +7.3 3
86 Davidson 1.6%   23 - 9 14 - 4 23 - 9 14 - 4 +5.9      +2.7 104 +3.2 87 63.3 318 +7.5 70 +8.1 2
102 Saint Louis 100.0%   14   23 - 12 10 - 8 23 - 12 10 - 8 +4.7      -0.5 189 +5.2 48 66.0 252 +5.7 92 +2.1 8
119 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   18 - 16 12 - 6 18 - 16 12 - 6 +3.6      -1.3 211 +4.9 53 62.3 329 +1.6 142 +4.9 4
133 Rhode Island 0.0%   18 - 15 9 - 9 18 - 15 9 - 9 +2.4      +0.2 170 +2.3 115 68.8 173 +2.5 131 +2.2 7
155 George Mason 0.0%   18 - 15 11 - 7 18 - 15 11 - 7 +0.6      +0.4 166 +0.2 165 69.6 151 +1.3 146 +4.0 5
160 Duquesne 0.0%   19 - 13 10 - 8 19 - 13 10 - 8 -0.1      +0.8 154 -0.9 188 72.9 81 +1.7 140 +2.7 6
174 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   14 - 19 6 - 12 14 - 19 6 - 12 -0.8      +0.7 155 -1.5 212 70.7 126 -0.8 178 -3.4 11
184 Richmond 0.0%   13 - 20 6 - 12 13 - 20 6 - 12 -1.5      +2.3 115 -3.8 271 65.1 282 -4.2 230 -3.4 10
216 La Salle 0.0%   10 - 21 8 - 10 10 - 21 8 - 10 -3.0      -2.8 255 -0.2 171 72.0 95 -4.5 233 -1.0 9
225 Massachusetts 0.0%   11 - 21 4 - 14 11 - 21 4 - 14 -3.6      -0.7 195 -2.9 254 68.6 178 -5.1 244 -6.5 13
244 Fordham 0.0%   11 - 20 3 - 15 11 - 20 3 - 15 -5.0      -5.3 305 +0.2 163 63.8 310 -6.2 268 -8.5 14
270 George Washington 0.0%   9 - 24 4 - 14 9 - 24 4 - 14 -6.3      -5.8 313 -0.6 182 68.0 202 -6.5 273 -6.4 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.0 100.0
Dayton 3.0 100.0
Davidson 2.0 100.0
Saint Louis 6.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 4.0 100.0
Rhode Island 8.0 100.0
George Mason 5.0 100.0
Duquesne 6.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 10.0 100.0
Richmond 10.0 100.0
La Salle 9.0 100.0
Massachusetts 12.0 100.0
Fordham 14.0 100.0
George Washington 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 16 - 2 100.0
Dayton 13 - 5 100.0
Davidson 14 - 4 100.0
Saint Louis 10 - 8 100.0
St. Bonaventure 12 - 6 100.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 100.0
George Mason 11 - 7 100.0
Duquesne 10 - 8 100.0
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 100.0
Richmond 6 - 12 100.0
La Salle 8 - 10 100.0
Massachusetts 4 - 14 100.0
Fordham 3 - 15 100.0
George Washington 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0
Dayton
Davidson
Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure
Rhode Island
George Mason
Duquesne
Saint Joseph's
Richmond
La Salle
Massachusetts
Fordham
George Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 72.8% 0.0% 72.8% 10   0.0 0.9 8.6 17.0 26.4 17.8 2.1 0.0 27.3 72.8%
Dayton 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1 0.8 0.1 99.0 1.0%
Davidson 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.1 1.3 0.1 98.5 1.6%
Saint Louis 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 14   4.9 43.7 51.0 0.4
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 72.8% 9.7% 68.3% 28.5% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 12.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 26.4 71.8 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 31.3 68.1 0.6
2nd Round 37.4% 0.4 62.6 33.9 3.5
Sweet Sixteen 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.1 0.1
Elite Eight 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4 0.0
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0